Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

3:2

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

WBSCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 1.82.7
High danger: 55
Chances: 910
Shots: 1631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

16Shots on goal31

9Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances5

1.84Expected goals2.72

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	4–3	4–1	1.0–0.9
2nd	4–11	2–6	0–4	0.4–1.4
3rd	5–8	3–1	1–0	0.5–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.72
GSAx: +0.72

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 13
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.84
GSAx: -1.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:16Vasily Ponomarev (1–0)high · 10 ft · beat Ken Appleby
1st 3:21Penalty
1st 3:44Patrick Giles (1–1)4v5 · high · 20 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
1st 5:45Corey Andonovski (2–1)high · 8 ft · beat Ken Appleby
1st 7:31Will Lockwood (2–2)low · 70 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 0:36Penalty
2nd 7:27Penalty
3rd 7:43Penalty
3rd 7:43Penalty
3rd 9:43Penalty
3rd 10:17Jonathan Gruden (3–2)4v5 · low · 31 ft · beat Ken Appleby