Springfield Thunderbirds at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Springfield Thunderbirds

7:2

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

SPRIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 2.54.3
High danger: 76
Chances: 1112
Shots: 2250

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal50

11Scoring chances12

7High-danger chances6

2.52Expected goals4.32

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–16	5–4	3–3	1.2–1.5
2nd	8–18	4–4	3–1	1.0–1.4
3rd	3–16	2–4	1–2	0.4–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 50
Saves: 48
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.32
GSAx: +2.32

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 13
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.11
GSAx: -2.89

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 4
Saves: 2
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.41
GSAx: -1.59

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:22Hugh McGing (1–0)medium · 15 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
1st 5:47Sam Bitten (2–0)low · 38 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
1st 6:11Penalty
1st 17:55Travis Boyd (2–1)high · 11 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 18:57Penalty
1st 19:40Penalty
1st 19:40Penalty
1st 19:40Penalty
1st 19:40Penalty
2nd 2:23Hugh McGing (3–1)low · 29 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 7:26Luke Toporowski (3–2)high · 9 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 7:43Nikita Alexandrov (4–2)high · 10 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 8:49Michael Buchinger (5–2)low · 30 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 13:39Penalty
2nd 17:21Matthew Peca (6–2)4v5 · low · 34 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 18:46Penalty
2nd 18:46Penalty
3rd 14:40Penalty
3rd 17:12Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (7–2)medium · 22 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj