AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 1

Ontario Reign at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Ontario Reign
5:4
Final / SO
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ONTTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
50%50%
xG
4.54.9
High danger
1012
Chances
2117
Shots
3931

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal31
21Scoring chances17
10High-danger chances12
4.47Expected goals4.91

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–98–52–31.4–1.3
2nd13–108–53–41.4–1.3
3rd12–105–65–41.4–1.8
OT3–20–10–10.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−3−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC39:00 of the 3rd11:007:32+0.016 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
39
Saves
35
Allowed
4
xGA
4.47
GSAx
+0.47
Erik Portillo
Shots faced
31
Saves
27
Allowed
4
xGA
4.91
GSAx
+0.91

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:41Penalty
  • 1st 9:49Penalty
  • 1st 11:15Cameron Hebig (0–1)4v5 · medium · 21 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 1st 12:54Penalty
  • 1st 15:42Taylor Ward (1–1)high · 7 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 15:48Penalty
  • 1st 18:51Penalty
  • 2nd 4:02Taylor Ward (2–1)low · 29 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 7:56Penalty
  • 2nd 9:31Penalty
  • 2nd 13:19Penalty
  • 2nd 14:39Penalty
  • 2nd 18:30Penalty
  • 2nd 18:59Penalty
  • 3rd 3:25Penalty
  • 3rd 5:33Jeff Malott (3–1)high · 5 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 8:15Penalty
  • 3rd 9:00Jeff Malott (4–1)5v4 · high · 5 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 11:16Travis Barron (4–2)high · 7 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 3rd 14:09Penalty
  • 3rd 14:36Penalty
  • 3rd 15:55Austin Poganski (4–3)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 3rd 18:26Cameron Hebig (4–4)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • OT 1:11Penalty