Laval Rocket at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Laval Rocket

5:2

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

LAVTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 2.42.2
High danger: 62
Chances: 108
Shots: 2226

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal26

10Scoring chances8

6High-danger chances2

2.38Expected goals2.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–2	6–1	3–1	1.5–0.3
2nd	6–11	3–4	2–0	0.7–0.9
3rd	2–13	1–3	1–1	0.2–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: +0.24

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 17
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: -2.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:39Penalty
1st 10:08Penalty
1st 10:08Penalty
1st 11:37Penalty
1st 15:23Sean Farrell (1–0)low · 27 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 16:47Penalty
1st 17:42Alex Steeves (1–1)4v5 · high · 10 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 18:24Jared Davidson (2–1)5v4 · low · 60 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 3:30Sean Farrell (3–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 7:16Ryan Tverberg (3–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 8:22Sean Farrell (4–2)high · 16 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 10:26Penalty
2nd 10:26Penalty
2nd 10:26Penalty
2nd 10:26Penalty
2nd 12:24Penalty
3rd 9:25Penalty
3rd 19:49Lucas Condotta (5–2)empty net · low · 135 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby