AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 7

Rockford IceHogs at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Rockford IceHogs
3:6
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

RFDTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
11%89%
xG
1.64.4
High danger
210
Chances
514
Shots
1937

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal37
5Scoring chances14
2High-danger chances10
1.64Expected goals4.41

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–111–40–30.4–1.5
2nd6–164–72–50.8–1.9
3rd7–100–30–20.4–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
37
Saves
31
Allowed
6
xGA
4.41
GSAx
-1.59
Rémi Poirier
Shots faced
19
Saves
16
Allowed
3
xGA
1.64
GSAx
-1.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:38Penalty
  • 1st 8:08Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 0:43Penalty
  • 2nd 2:23Andreas Athanasiou (1–0)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 2nd 5:47Penalty
  • 2nd 11:41Chase Wheatcroft (1–1)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 14:09Curtis McKenzie (1–2)high · 7 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 16:09Penalty
  • 2nd 16:28Cole Guttman (2–2)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 0:47Penalty
  • 3rd 1:22Matěj Blümel (2–3)5v4 · medium · 18 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 9:00Cole Guttman (3–3)low · 36 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 9:33Arttu Hyry (3–4)low · 25 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 10:53Kyle Capobianco (3–5)low · 34 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 16:38Kole Lind (3–6)empty net · high · 3 ft · beat Drew Commesso