AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, February 7

Chicago Wolves at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Chicago Wolves
4:3
Final / OT
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CHIBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
15%85%
xG
1.54.1
High danger
38
Chances
513
Shots
2330

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal30
5Scoring chances13
3High-danger chances8
1.50Expected goals4.12

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–102–51–30.4–1.4
2nd8–92–32–10.6–0.8
3rd9–91–40–30.4–1.6
OT1–20–10–10.1–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:042:47+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Spencer Martin
Shots faced
30
Saves
27
Allowed
3
xGA
4.12
GSAx
+1.12
Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
23
Saves
19
Allowed
4
xGA
1.50
GSAx
-2.50

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:35Bradly Nadeau (1–0)low · wrist · 17 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 8:39Drake Caggiula (1–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 1st 13:34Penalty
  • 2nd 7:22Felix Unger Sörum (2–1)high · wrist · 22 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 12:56Penalty
  • 2nd 12:56Penalty
  • 3rd 4:17Penalty
  • 3rd 4:17Penalty
  • 3rd 4:17Penalty
  • 3rd 4:17Penalty
  • 3rd 4:17Penalty
  • 3rd 4:50Penalty
  • 3rd 5:40James Hamblin (2–2)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 3rd 6:48Penalty
  • 3rd 11:03Penalty
  • 3rd 13:32Penalty
  • 3rd 14:12Ty Smith (3–2)5v4 · low · wrist · 57 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 19:23Penalty
  • 3rd 19:43James Hamblin (3–3)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 11 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • OT 1:03Penalty
  • OT 1:42Domenick Fensore (4–3)4v5 · low · wrist · 12 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue