Tucson Roadrunners at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

3:5

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

TUCSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.33.9
High danger: 36
Chances: 1214
Shots: 2840

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal40

12Scoring chances14

3High-danger chances6

2.33Expected goals3.95

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–16	3–6	0–3	0.6–1.7
2nd	9–15	3–6	0–2	0.6–1.5
3rd	11–9	6–2	3–1	1.2–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 35
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.95
GSAx: -1.05

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.33
GSAx: -0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:55Filip Bystedt (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 18:08Egor Sokolov (1–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
1st 19:45Danil Gushchin (1–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 4:31Cameron Hebig (2–2)medium · 27 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 10:41Penalty
2nd 12:03Danil Gushchin (2–3)5v4 · low · 33 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 1:05Penalty
3rd 2:28Penalty
3rd 10:04Penalty
3rd 10:04Penalty
3rd 17:38Colin White (2–4)empty net · low · 56 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 18:47Ethan Cardwell (2–5)empty net · high · 17 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 19:58Lleyton Moore (3–5)low · 35 ft · beat Georgii Romanov