Rockford IceHogs at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Rockford IceHogs

3:4

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

RFDTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 2.82.9
High danger: 36
Chances: 1313
Shots: 2726

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal26

13Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances6

2.79Expected goals2.92

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–5	6–4	1–2	1.3–0.7
2nd	9–11	5–4	2–1	1.0–0.9
3rd	7–10	2–5	0–3	0.4–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ben Kraws

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.79
GSAx: -0.21

Benjamin Gaudreau

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 14
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.71
GSAx: -0.29

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 10
Saves: 8
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.22
GSAx: -0.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:08Samuel Savoie (1–0)low · 30 ft · beat Ben Kraws
1st 9:29Antonio Stranges (1–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 10:44Joey Anderson (2–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Ben Kraws
1st 12:53Andreas Athanasiou (3–1)low · 7 ft · beat Ben Kraws
1st 16:38Kole Lind (3–2)high · 20 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 17:42Penalty
1st 17:42Penalty
2nd 0:45Penalty
2nd 0:45Penalty
2nd 0:45Penalty
2nd 0:45Penalty
2nd 9:34Penalty
2nd 14:30Penalty
2nd 18:36Kyle Capobianco (3–3)low · 71 ft · beat Benjamin Gaudreau
3rd 9:48Penalty
3rd 10:28Matěj Blümel (3–4)4v5 · medium · 33 ft · beat Benjamin Gaudreau
3rd 17:40Penalty