Chicago Wolves at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Chicago Wolves

0:4

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CHIBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

14%86%

xG: 1.73.8
High danger: 15
Chances: 617
Shots: 1839

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal39

6Scoring chances17

1High-danger chances5

1.71Expected goals3.81

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–12	1–5	0–2	0.6–1.1
2nd	6–18	3–7	1–2	0.8–1.7
3rd	4–9	2–5	0–1	0.3–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Tokarski

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 35
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.81
GSAx: -0.19

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 18
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.71
GSAx: +1.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:52Penalty
2nd 2:06James Hamblin (0–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
2nd 7:35Noah Philp (0–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
2nd 9:56Penalty
2nd 16:02Cam Dineen (0–3)high · 14 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
2nd 19:33Penalty
3rd 10:00Penalty
3rd 15:01Penalty
3rd 15:01Penalty
3rd 16:20Drake Caggiula (0–4)empty net · low · 138 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
3rd 16:29Penalty
3rd 16:29Penalty