AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, February 11

Milwaukee Admirals at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Milwaukee Admirals
3:1
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MILRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
50%50%
xG
1.92.6
High danger
43
Chances
810
Shots
1927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal27
8Scoring chances10
4High-danger chances3
1.92Expected goals2.63

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–111–50–20.2–1.2
2nd10–96–33–11.2–0.8
3rd5–71–21–00.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
27
Saves
26
Allowed
1
xGA
2.63
GSAx
+1.63
Mitchell Weeks
Shots faced
19
Saves
16
Allowed
3
xGA
1.92
GSAx
-1.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:49Cal O’Reilly (1–0)low · backhand · 29 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 1st 4:29Penalty
  • 1st 5:42Kieffer Bellows (2–0)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 1st 14:22Penalty
  • 2nd 13:21Penalty
  • 2nd 16:55Penalty
  • 2nd 17:23Penalty
  • 3rd 0:44Penalty
  • 3rd 0:48Artyom Levshunov (2–1)5v4 · low · 52 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 6:45Penalty
  • 3rd 6:45Penalty
  • 3rd 6:45Penalty
  • 3rd 9:22Penalty
  • 3rd 19:57Kieffer Bellows (3–1)empty net · low · 118 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks