Tucson Roadrunners at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

3:2

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TUCBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

63%37%

xG: 2.62.2
High danger: 62
Chances: 99
Shots: 1923

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal23

9Scoring chances9

6High-danger chances2

2.58Expected goals2.21

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–5	0–2	0–0	0.2–0.4
2nd	8–10	4–5	2–2	1.2–1.3
3rd	8–8	5–2	4–0	1.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.21
GSAx: +0.21

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.58
GSAx: -0.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 0:40Penalty
2nd 6:20Penalty
2nd 8:51Penalty
2nd 9:08Ben McCartney (1–0)5v4 · high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 11:10Drake Caggiula (1–1)high · wrist · 17 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 6:14Robbie Russo (2–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 12 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 7:07Kailer Yamamoto (3–1)high · wrist · 18 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 11:01Penalty
3rd 18:54Connor Carrick (3–2)low · slap · 59 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber