Syracuse Crunch at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Syracuse Crunch

4:5

Final / OT

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

SYRTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 2.22.9
High danger: 35
Chances: 713
Shots: 2828

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal28

7Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances5

2.22Expected goals2.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–9	2–4	1–1	0.7–0.9
2nd	7–9	2–6	0–2	0.6–1.0
3rd	11–7	3–3	2–2	0.9–0.7
OT	1–3	0–0	0–0	0.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	3	2:26 of the 3rd	17:34	10:53	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.22
GSAx: -1.78

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 15
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.70
GSAx: -0.30

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 8
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.15
GSAx: -1.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:49Mikko Kokkonen (0–1)low · 43 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 12:39Penalty
1st 12:59Penalty
1st 15:28Joseph Blandisi (0–2)low · 30 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 0:27Gabriel Fortier (1–2)low · 49 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 4:15William Villeneuve (1–3)low · 42 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 4:52Penalty
3rd 2:26Roni Hirvonen (1–4)low · 24 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 10:20Declan Carlile (2–4)low · 56 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 15:08Jack Finley (3–4)low · 37 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 16:14Penalty
3rd 16:39Conor Geekie (4–4)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
OT 1:42Logan Shaw (4–5)low · 31 ft · beat Matt Tomkins