Tucson Roadrunners at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

1:4

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

TUCONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 2.13.5
High danger: 28
Chances: 814
Shots: 2232

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal32

8Scoring chances14

2High-danger chances8

2.06Expected goals3.55

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–11	2–5	0–2	0.6–1.3
2nd	4–14	3–6	1–4	0.6–1.6
3rd	10–7	3–3	1–2	0.9–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	3	5:52 of the 3rd	14:08	14:08	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.55
GSAx: -0.45

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.06
GSAx: +1.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:09Penalty
1st 1:09Penalty
1st 2:18Penalty
1st 3:54Robbie Russo (1–0)5v4 · low · 62 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 11:04Penalty
1st 17:23Charles Hudon (1–1)low · 46 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 3:28Luke Rowe (1–2)low · 57 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 5:46Penalty
2nd 11:50Penalty
2nd 19:14Jeff Malott (1–3)high · 18 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 1:47Penalty
3rd 5:52Jeff Malott (1–4)high · 16 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 7:03Penalty