Coachella Valley Firebirds at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Coachella Valley Firebirds

4:5

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

CVHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 3.12.8
High danger: 44
Chances: 911
Shots: 3437

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal37

9Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances4

3.06Expected goals2.78

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–20	3–6	2–2	0.9–1.5
2nd	10–12	3–3	2–1	1.3–0.8
3rd	14–5	3–2	0–1	0.9–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 32
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.78
GSAx: -2.22

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.05
GSAx: -0.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:59Ty Nelson (1–0)low · wrist · 62 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 15:56Mitch McLain (1–1)high · wrist · rebound · 18 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 19:56Jani Nyman (2–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 12 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 7:48Braeden Bowman (2–2)low · wrist · 29 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 9:02Riley McKay (2–3)medium · tip · 18 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 12:08Penalty
2nd 15:51Ian McKinnon (3–3)grade A · wrist · rebound · 9 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 18:25Braeden Bowman (3–4)high · tip · 9 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 2:08Jakub Brabenec (3–5)high · backhand · 11 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 10:11Luke Henman (4–5)medium · wrist · 17 ft · beat Akira Schmid