AHLDashboard
‹ Thursday, February 13

Springfield Thunderbirds at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Springfield Thunderbirds
4:5
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

SPRMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
82%18%
xG
3.21.5
High danger
31
Chances
115
Shots
3619

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal19
11Scoring chances5
3High-danger chances1
3.24Expected goals1.54

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–21–01–00.5–0.1
2nd18–118–42–02.2–0.9
3rd9–62–10–10.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR119:58 of the 3rd0:020:02+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
36
Saves
32
Allowed
4
xGA
3.24
GSAx
-0.76
Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
19
Saves
14
Allowed
5
xGA
1.54
GSAx
-3.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:18Penalty
  • 1st 9:22Penalty
  • 1st 13:05Nikita Alexandrov (1–0)high · 26 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 2:41Marc Del Gaizo (1–1)low · 38 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 4:04Tanner Dickinson (2–1)medium · 6 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 5:31Penalty
  • 2nd 5:57Dalibor Dvorský (3–1)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 7:07Nikita Alexandrov (4–1)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 8:49Ondrej Pavel (4–2)low · 61 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 9:20Penalty
  • 2nd 9:52Marc Del Gaizo (4–3)5v4 · medium · 25 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 10:14Penalty
  • 2nd 10:14Penalty
  • 2nd 16:46Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 13:22Jake Livingstone (4–4)low · 35 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 18:23Penalty
  • 3rd 19:58Jake Lucchini (4–5)5v4 · low · 18 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko