Toronto Marlies at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Toronto Marlies

3:5

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

TORBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

55%45%

xG: 3.12.7
High danger: 44
Chances: 1311
Shots: 3726

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal26

13Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances4

3.06Expected goals2.71

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–8	4–3	1–1	1.1–0.8
2nd	10–9	5–3	1–1	0.9–1.0
3rd	12–9	4–5	2–2	1.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	3	4:10 of the 3rd	15:50	8:50	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 34
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.06
GSAx: +0.06

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.70
GSAx: -2.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 17:59Garrett Pilon (0–1)grade A · 12 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 9:27Penalty
2nd 13:00Penalty
2nd 19:02Stephen Halliday (0–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 4:10Wyatt Bongiovanni (0–3)high · 12 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 5:09Roni Hirvonen (1–3)medium · 27 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 14:41Angus Crookshank (1–4)low · 31 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 15:53Jacob Quillan (2–4)low · 17 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 18:52Joseph Blandisi (3–4)high · 15 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 19:28Donovan Sebrango (3–5)empty net · low · 156 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby