Utica Comets at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Utica Comets

1:5

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

UTCPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 3.05.5
High danger: 514
Chances: 1627
Shots: 2738

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal38

16Scoring chances27

5High-danger chances14

3.01Expected goals5.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–9	6–7	2–4	1.1–1.4
2nd	9–17	6–10	2–6	1.1–2.4
3rd	8–12	4–10	1–4	0.9–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	3	3:48 of the 3rd	16:12	16:12	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 33
Allowed: 5
xGA: 5.46
GSAx: +0.46

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.01
GSAx: +2.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:20Georgii Merkulov (0–1)high · 14 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 2:54Penalty
1st 3:32Penalty
1st 12:18Penalty
1st 17:55Penalty
2nd 4:19Penalty
2nd 4:56Ryan Schmelzer (1–1)5v4 · high · 18 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 11:43Mason Millman (1–2)medium · 28 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 3:31Riley Duran (1–3)medium · 24 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 3:48Tyler Pitlick (1–4)high · 16 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 11:08Penalty
3rd 16:12Penalty
3rd 18:50Riley Duran (1–5)empty net · low · 166 ft · beat Nico Daws