Texas Stars at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Texas Stars

4:2

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

TEXMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 2.52.0
High danger: 33
Chances: 76
Shots: 3224

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal24

7Scoring chances6

3High-danger chances3

2.46Expected goals2.01

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–10	2–3	1–2	0.7–1.0
2nd	7–5	2–1	1–1	0.6–0.4
3rd	14–9	3–2	1–0	1.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: -1.54

Ben Kraws

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.01
GSAx: +0.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:25Ben King (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Ben Kraws
1st 16:27Penalty
2nd 3:50Penalty
2nd 9:21Mason Shaw (0–2)high · 10 ft · beat Ben Kraws
2nd 18:14Penalty
2nd 18:14Penalty
2nd 18:14Anthony Romano (1–2)low · 45 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 0:36Penalty
3rd 9:18Penalty
3rd 10:04Arttu Hyry (2–2)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 10:29Penalty
3rd 11:34Matěj Blümel (3–2)5v4 · low · 63 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 17:47Kole Lind (4–2)empty net · low · 103 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen