Hartford Wolf Pack at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Hartford Wolf Pack

0:4

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

HFDCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 2.02.9
High danger: 44
Chances: 716
Shots: 1825

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal25

7Scoring chances16

4High-danger chances4

2.02Expected goals2.93

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	4–6	4–1	1.2–1.0
2nd	5–9	2–5	0–0	0.4–0.9
3rd	5–7	1–5	0–3	0.4–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.93
GSAx: -1.07

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 18
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.02
GSAx: +2.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:48Penalty
1st 15:40Penalty
2nd 2:42Penalty
2nd 5:05Penalty
2nd 10:31Wilmer Skoog (0–1)medium · 6 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 13:50Justin Sourdif (0–2)low · 32 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 3:56Penalty
3rd 14:40Justin Sourdif (0–3)high · 8 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 15:39Penalty
3rd 16:56Rasmus Asplund (0–4)empty net · low · 92 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 19:18Penalty
3rd 19:18Penalty