Belleville Senators at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Belleville Senators

2:3

Final / OT

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

BELTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

85%15%

xG: 2.21.5
High danger: 30
Chances: 73
Shots: 3322

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal22

7Scoring chances3

3High-danger chances0

2.18Expected goals1.47

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–5	2–0	1–0	0.7–0.3
2nd	14–11	4–2	2–0	1.3–0.7
3rd	6–5	1–1	0–0	0.2–0.4
OT	0–1	0–0	0–0	0.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:01	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.18
GSAx: +0.18

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.47
GSAx: -1.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:18Penalty
1st 16:33Jeremy Davies (1–0)low · wrist · 32 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 18:48Penalty
1st 19:56Alex Steeves (1–1)5v4 · low · slap · 58 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
2nd 6:36Penalty
3rd 13:34Penalty
3rd 16:25Matthew Barbolini (1–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 17:19Penalty
3rd 18:57Jeremy Davies (2–2)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
OT 0:34Penalty
OT 0:52Alex Steeves (2–3)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Malcolm Subban