AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 15

Providence Bruins at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Providence Bruins
5:0
Final
Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

PROBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
77%23%
xG
2.81.9
High danger
52
Chances
88
Shots
3527

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BRI above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal27
8Scoring chances8
5High-danger chances2
2.79Expected goals1.94

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–122–31–10.6–0.6
2nd16–103–43–11.4–0.9
3rd11–53–11–00.9–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BRI−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BRI32:41 of the 3rd17:1917:19+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Henrik Tikkanen
Shots faced
35
Saves
30
Allowed
5
xGA
2.79
GSAx
-2.21
Brandon Bussi
Shots faced
27
Saves
27
Allowed
0
xGA
1.94
GSAx
+1.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:51Penalty
  • 1st 18:34Penalty
  • 2nd 1:06Mason Millman (1–0)low · 60 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 2nd 2:03Matthew Poitras (2–0)low · 38 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 2nd 7:36Penalty
  • 2nd 16:23Penalty
  • 2nd 16:23Penalty
  • 2nd 16:23Penalty
  • 3rd 2:41Fabian Lysell (3–0)medium · 22 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 3rd 4:58Penalty
  • 3rd 4:58Penalty
  • 3rd 5:15Riley Tufte (4–0)high · 11 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 3rd 12:12Patrick Brown (5–0)low · 41 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 3rd 17:21Penalty