AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 15

Hershey Bears at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hershey Bears
4:3
Final / OT
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HERWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
65%35%
xG
4.33.8
High danger
115
Chances
1213
Shots
3332

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
WBS above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal32
12Scoring chances13
11High-danger chances5
4.31Expected goals3.77

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–113–33–10.9–0.9
2nd14–83–32–11.0–0.9
3rd11–125–65–32.1–1.8
OT1–11–11–00.3–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HER−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HER116:56 of the 3rd3:042:51+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Filip Larsson
Shots faced
33
Saves
29
Allowed
4
xGA
4.31
GSAx
+0.31
Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
32
Saves
29
Allowed
3
xGA
3.78
GSAx
+0.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:22Penalty
  • 1st 8:59Avery Hayes (0–1)low · wrist · 25 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 1st 11:05Penalty
  • 1st 13:27Penalty
  • 1st 13:27Penalty
  • 1st 14:23Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 3:15Penalty
  • 2nd 4:55Alex Limoges (1–1)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Filip Larsson
  • 2nd 10:10Penalty
  • 3rd 4:04Pierrick Dubé (2–1)high · tip · 14 ft · beat Filip Larsson
  • 3rd 5:42Penalty
  • 3rd 8:41Valtteri Puustinen (2–2)low · wrist · 30 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 10:17Avery Hayes (2–3)medium · snap · 17 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 11:01Penalty
  • 3rd 11:01Penalty
  • 3rd 11:01Penalty
  • 3rd 11:01Penalty
  • 3rd 12:31Penalty
  • 3rd 12:31Penalty
  • 3rd 19:47Chase Priskie (3–3)grade A · wrist · rebound · 9 ft · beat Filip Larsson
  • OT 3:13Hendrix Lapierre (4–3)grade A · wrist · 48 ft · beat Filip Larsson