Springfield Thunderbirds at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Springfield Thunderbirds

3:4

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

SPRRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 1.93.2
High danger: 35
Chances: 915
Shots: 2132

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal32

9Scoring chances15

3High-danger chances5

1.95Expected goals3.20

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–11	2–6	1–2	0.4–1.2
2nd	8–11	4–4	1–2	0.9–1.0
3rd	8–10	3–5	1–1	0.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	18:01 of the 3rd	1:59	1:59	+0.045 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.20
GSAx: -0.80

Benjamin Gaudreau

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: -1.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:04Joey Anderson (0–1)medium · 29 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 6:56Penalty
1st 11:19Penalty
1st 16:44Penalty
1st 16:44Penalty
1st 17:33Penalty
1st 18:17Matt Luff (1–1)5v4 · medium · 50 ft · beat Benjamin Gaudreau
1st 18:49Brett Seney (1–2)medium · 31 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 5:19Joey Anderson (1–3)medium · 29 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 8:57Penalty
2nd 12:55Hugh McGing (2–3)medium · 16 ft · beat Benjamin Gaudreau
2nd 14:56Matthew Peca (3–3)grade A · rebound · 25 ft · beat Benjamin Gaudreau
3rd 18:01Andreas Athanasiou (3–4)medium · 17 ft · beat Colten Ellis