AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 15

Tucson Roadrunners at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Tucson Roadrunners
4:5
Final / SO
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

TUCHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
41%59%
xG
2.32.7
High danger
53
Chances
710
Shots
2933

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal33
7Scoring chances10
5High-danger chances3
2.26Expected goals2.73

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–141–30–10.2–1.0
2nd8–132–52–10.7–1.0
3rd14–54–13–11.2–0.6
OT3–10–10–00.1–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK116:56 of the 3rd3:042:10+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
33
Saves
29
Allowed
4
xGA
2.73
GSAx
-1.27
Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
2.26
GSAx
-1.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:48Ryan McGregor (1–0)low · wrist · 44 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 15:50Penalty
  • 2nd 3:56Travis Barron (2–0)low · wrist · 29 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 2nd 5:02Penalty
  • 2nd 12:29Tanner Laczynski (2–1)medium · tip · 9 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 16:55Penalty
  • 2nd 17:06Raphael Lavoie (2–2)5v4 · high · wrist · 25 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 4:33Aku Räty (3–2)grade A · wrist · rebound · 24 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 3rd 5:12Penalty
  • 3rd 5:12Penalty
  • 3rd 6:11Josh Doan (4–2)high · wrist · 16 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 3rd 6:55Penalty
  • 3rd 9:27Cal Burke (4–3)low · wrist · 45 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 19:06Gage Quinney (4–4)grade A · wrist · 48 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber