San Diego Gulls at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

San Diego Gulls

5:3

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

SDCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 2.41.7
High danger: 52
Chances: 83
Shots: 2425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal25

8Scoring chances3

5High-danger chances2

2.43Expected goals1.74

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	5–2	3–2	1.2–0.8
2nd	6–6	0–0	0–0	0.4–0.3
3rd	7–11	3–1	2–0	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.74
GSAx: -1.26

Philipp Grubauer

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 19
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.43
GSAx: -2.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:12Justin Bailey (1–0)high · 13 ft · beat Philipp Grubauer
1st 3:59Penalty
1st 4:08Ben Meyers (1–1)5v4 · grade A · 58 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 7:47Penalty
1st 9:09Carson Meyer (2–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Philipp Grubauer
1st 9:45Nathan Gaucher (3–1)low · 18 ft · beat Philipp Grubauer
1st 16:05Penalty
1st 17:43Jagger Firkus (3–2)5v4 · low · 41 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 7:36Tucker Robertson (3–3)low · 38 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 16:58Penalty
3rd 0:38Judd Caulfield (4–3)high · rebound · 17 ft · beat Philipp Grubauer
3rd 18:21Nikita Nesterenko (5–3)empty net · medium · 16 ft · beat Philipp Grubauer