AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 15

San Jose Barracuda at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

San Jose Barracuda
4:3
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

SJBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
63%37%
xG
2.11.7
High danger
11
Chances
94
Shots
2528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal28
9Scoring chances4
1High-danger chances1
2.11Expected goals1.72

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–92–11–00.5–0.5
2nd12–75–10–11.1–0.4
3rd6–122–20–00.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Yaroslav Askarov
Shots faced
28
Saves
25
Allowed
3
xGA
1.72
GSAx
-1.28
Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
25
Saves
21
Allowed
4
xGA
2.11
GSAx
-1.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 14:18Penalty
  • 1st 17:57Penalty
  • 1st 17:57Penalty
  • 1st 18:23Danil Gushchin (1–0)high · 13 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 19:06Penalty
  • 1st 19:13Connor Carrick (1–1)5v4 · medium · 40 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 2nd 2:52Penalty
  • 2nd 3:51Luca Cagnoni (2–1)5v4 · low · wrist · 58 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 4:14Phil Kemp (2–2)low · slap · 32 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 2nd 7:24Penalty
  • 2nd 9:46Penalty
  • 2nd 18:41Anthony Vincent (3–2)medium · snap · 11 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 9:01Matthew Savoie (3–3)low · slap · 37 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 3rd 11:10Andrew Poturalski (4–3)low · wrist · 39 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue