Milwaukee Admirals at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Milwaukee Admirals

1:2

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

MILMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 2.32.7
High danger: 24
Chances: 811
Shots: 2830

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal30

8Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances4

2.35Expected goals2.72

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–9	1–2	0–1	0.2–0.6
2nd	19–9	6–2	2–1	1.7–0.5
3rd	6–12	1–7	0–2	0.4–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	1	19:50 of the 3rd	0:10	0:10	+0.003 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.72
GSAx: +0.72

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.35
GSAx: +1.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:30Penalty
1st 2:30Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 0:29Parker Ford (0–1)5v4 · high · 25 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 3:33Penalty
2nd 5:40Penalty
2nd 5:40Penalty
2nd 18:38Ryan Ufko (1–1)low · 32 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 12:32Penalty
3rd 19:50Dylan Coghlan (1–2)medium · rebound · 22 ft · beat Magnus Chrona