Bridgeport Islanders at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Bridgeport Islanders

4:2

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

BRIPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 2.72.7
High danger: 32
Chances: 711
Shots: 2932

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal32

7Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances2

2.69Expected goals2.67

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–11	3–2	2–0	0.7–0.8
2nd	12–13	3–6	1–1	1.4–1.0
3rd	11–8	1–3	0–1	0.6–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.65
GSAx: -0.35

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 21
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: +1.87

Hunter Miska

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 9
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.80
GSAx: -1.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:19Penalty
1st 7:56Marshall Warren (1–0)low · 18 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 13:20John Farinacci (1–1)low · 34 ft · beat Hunter Miska
1st 14:13Jeffrey Viel (1–2)low · 17 ft · beat Hunter Miska
1st 17:49Penalty
1st 19:40Penalty
2nd 17:35Brian Pinho (2–2)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 5:33Penalty
3rd 14:47Tyce Thompson (3–2)low · 24 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 19:05Eetu Liukas (4–2)empty net · low · 178 ft