Laval Rocket at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Laval Rocket

5:2

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

LAVROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 2.73.5
High danger: 66
Chances: 1114
Shots: 2336

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal36

11Scoring chances14

6High-danger chances6

2.71Expected goals3.54

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–11	1–3	1–1	0.5–0.7
2nd	8–7	5–5	4–3	1.3–1.0
3rd	10–18	5–6	1–2	0.9–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	3	5:42 of the 3rd	14:18	14:18	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Hughes

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 34
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.54
GSAx: +1.54

Michael Houser

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 11
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.23
GSAx: +0.23

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 7
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.48
GSAx: -2.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:25Alex Barré-Boulet (1–0)low · 34 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 2:56Penalty
1st 3:12Florian Xhekaj (2–0)4v5 · low · 40 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 10:50Jack Rathbone (2–1)low · 12 ft · beat Connor Hughes
2nd 2:11Mason Jobst (2–2)high · 9 ft · beat Connor Hughes
2nd 9:13Owen Beck (3–2)grade A · rebound · 22 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 12:50Penalty
2nd 15:41Owen Beck (4–2)high · 5 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 16:21Penalty
2nd 18:37Penalty
3rd 4:01Penalty
3rd 4:01Penalty
3rd 5:42Sean Farrell (5–2)medium · 33 ft · beat Michael Houser
3rd 9:52Penalty