Hartford Wolf Pack at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Hartford Wolf Pack

3:4

Final / OT

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

HFDCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

11%89%

xG: 1.85.4
High danger: 27
Chances: 615
Shots: 1849

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal49

6Scoring chances15

2High-danger chances7

1.78Expected goals5.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–9	4–3	1–1	1.1–0.9
2nd	6–22	2–8	1–2	0.6–2.1
3rd	2–15	0–2	0–2	0.1–1.2
OT	0–3	0–2	0–2	0.0–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:34	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 49
Saves: 45
Allowed: 4
xGA: 5.44
GSAx: +1.44

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 15
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.78
GSAx: -1.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:26Penalty
1st 4:42Brennan Othmann (1–0)5v4 · low · 55 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 6:15Lucas Edmonds (2–0)grade A · 19 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 6:52Michael Benning (2–1)low · 49 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 9:27Penalty
1st 15:39Michael Benning (2–2)low · 23 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 17:46Penalty
2nd 3:06Penalty
2nd 3:06Penalty
2nd 4:22Penalty
2nd 6:57Penalty
2nd 15:07Penalty
3rd 10:12Brennan Othmann (3–2)low · 52 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 18:03Penalty
3rd 19:30John Leonard (3–3)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Dylan Garand
OT 2:29Kyle Criscuolo (3–4)low · 18 ft · beat Dylan Garand