AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, February 16

San Jose Barracuda at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

San Jose Barracuda
2:4
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

SJSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
51%49%
xG
3.03.3
High danger
43
Chances
1314
Shots
2732

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal32
13Scoring chances14
4High-danger chances3
2.98Expected goals3.28

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–105–31–01.0–0.8
2nd6–102–31–10.6–0.9
3rd12–126–82–21.4–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Gabriel Carriere
Shots faced
32
Saves
28
Allowed
4
xGA
3.28
GSAx
-0.72
Oscar Dansk
Shots faced
27
Saves
25
Allowed
2
xGA
2.97
GSAx
+0.97

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:12Penalty
  • 1st 4:20Scott Sabourin (1–0)high · rebound · 13 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 1st 12:22Roland McKeown (1–1)low · 64 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 1st 14:05Thomas Bordeleau (2–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 1st 14:20Penalty
  • 2nd 2:57Penalty
  • 2nd 5:43Penalty
  • 2nd 6:50Penalty
  • 2nd 7:50Penalty
  • 2nd 14:51Penalty
  • 2nd 16:15Justin Bailey (2–2)5v4 · medium · 26 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 2:28Penalty
  • 3rd 3:56Justin Bailey (2–3)5v4 · medium · 25 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 7:43Penalty
  • 3rd 7:43Penalty
  • 3rd 8:37Penalty
  • 3rd 10:54Penalty
  • 3rd 19:58Nathan Gaucher (2–4)empty net · medium · 20 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere