AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, February 16

Tucson Roadrunners at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Tucson Roadrunners
7:4
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

TUCHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
73%27%
xG
2.72.3
High danger
72
Chances
128
Shots
2528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal28
12Scoring chances8
7High-danger chances2
2.71Expected goals2.25

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–124–22–11.0–0.8
2nd10–67–25–11.4–0.7
3rd8–101–40–00.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−3−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK30:00 of the 3rd20:007:32+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
28
Saves
24
Allowed
4
xGA
2.25
GSAx
-1.75
Akira Schmid
Shots faced
25
Saves
18
Allowed
7
xGA
2.71
GSAx
-4.29

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:49Austin Poganski (1–0)low · wrist · 37 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 1st 7:56Travis Barron (2–0)high · backhand · 17 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 1st 11:35Penalty
  • 1st 12:09Jonas Røndbjerg (2–1)5v4 · high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 13:26Penalty
  • 2nd 5:33Egor Sokolov (3–1)high · wrist · 10 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 11:23Josh Doan (4–1)medium · wrist · 23 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 15:42Raphael Lavoie (4–2)medium · wrist · 16 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 16:11Julian Lutz (5–2)high · wrist · 20 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 18:11Penalty
  • 2nd 18:11Penalty
  • 3rd 4:28Raphael Lavoie (5–3)low · wrist · 51 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 9:46Gage Quinney (5–4)medium · snap · 22 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 18:48Josh Doan (6–4)empty net · low · wrist · 70 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 3rd 19:13Sammy Walker (7–4)empty net · low · wrist · 84 ft · beat Akira Schmid