Bakersfield Condors at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Bakersfield Condors

3:4

Final / SO

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

BAKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

62%38%

xG: 3.52.7
High danger: 74
Chances: 1213
Shots: 3427

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal27

12Scoring chances13

7High-danger chances4

3.50Expected goals2.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–6	2–4	1–0	0.7–0.7
2nd	10–8	7–3	5–2	1.8–0.8
3rd	14–9	3–5	1–2	1.1–1.0
OT	0–4	0–1	0–0	0.0–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:18	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.50
GSAx: +0.50

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.73
GSAx: -0.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:49Penalty
1st 11:39Penalty
1st 12:29Penalty
1st 14:37Phil Kemp (1–0)low · 24 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 14:44Penalty
1st 18:02Penalty
2nd 3:57Penalty
2nd 8:52Penalty
2nd 13:11Jacob Melanson (1–1)low · 17 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 14:06Penalty
3rd 1:05Penalty
3rd 5:57Jani Nyman (1–2)low · 26 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 8:22Ronnie Attard (2–2)low · 48 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 14:25Ben Meyers (2–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 17:14Daniel D’Amato (3–3)high · 11 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
OT 0:41Penalty
OT 4:50Penalty