AHLDashboard
‹ Monday, February 17

Milwaukee Admirals at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Milwaukee Admirals
5:1
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

MILMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
90%10%
xG
4.11.3
High danger
82
Chances
165
Shots
3817

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal17
16Scoring chances5
8High-danger chances2
4.11Expected goals1.32

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–44–11–11.1–0.4
2nd10–75–23–01.3–0.5
3rd16–67–24–11.6–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis
Shots faced
38
Saves
33
Allowed
5
xGA
4.11
GSAx
-0.89
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
17
Saves
16
Allowed
1
xGA
1.32
GSAx
+0.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:10Penalty
  • 1st 12:48Ozzy Wiesblatt (1–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 13:20Penalty
  • 1st 13:20Penalty
  • 1st 16:04Penalty
  • 2nd 10:24Kevin Gravel (2–0)low · 61 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 10:56Ryder Rolston (3–0)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 12:29Penalty
  • 2nd 18:31Penalty
  • 2nd 18:31Penalty
  • 2nd 18:31Penalty
  • 2nd 18:31Penalty
  • 2nd 18:58Jake Lucchini (4–0)5v4 · medium · 11 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 0:18Penalty
  • 3rd 0:18Penalty
  • 3rd 2:06Jaret Anderson-Dolan (4–1)high · 13 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 4:57Penalty
  • 3rd 11:50Penalty
  • 3rd 12:40Penalty
  • 3rd 14:06Joakim Kemell (5–1)4v5 · grade A · 9 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 3rd 17:33Penalty