Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

5:2

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

LVGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

14%86%

xG: 2.04.8
High danger: 310
Chances: 619
Shots: 2541

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal41

6Scoring chances19

3High-danger chances10

2.04Expected goals4.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–7	0–3	0–2	0.1–0.7
2nd	13–15	4–7	2–2	1.3–1.6
3rd	9–19	2–9	1–6	0.7–2.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	3	0:32 of the 3rd	19:28	19:28	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Parker Gahagen

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 39
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.77
GSAx: +2.77

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 20
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: -2.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 17:44Penalty
1st 19:55Olle Lycksell (1–0)low · 47 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 15:47Rodrigo Abols (2–0)low · 27 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 0:32Brendan Furry (3–0)low · 27 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 10:47Anthony Richard (4–0)medium · 28 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 12:10Nate Danielson (4–1)low · 46 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
3rd 14:52Alex Doucet (4–2)low · 30 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
3rd 19:15Garrett Wilson (5–2)empty net · low · 173 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa