Belleville Senators at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Belleville Senators

2:5

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

BELUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 3.33.3
High danger: 47
Chances: 1615
Shots: 3227

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal27

16Scoring chances15

4High-danger chances7

3.25Expected goals3.27

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–15	4–8	0–2	0.7–1.7
2nd	12–6	7–3	0–3	1.2–0.9
3rd	12–6	5–4	4–2	1.4–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.25
GSAx: +1.25

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.27
GSAx: -1.73

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:14Nolan Foote (0–1)high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
1st 3:41Penalty
1st 4:56Penalty
1st 14:29Penalty
2nd 1:45Penalty
2nd 4:15Brian Halonen (0–2)grade A · 12 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 11:48Penalty
2nd 14:40Stephen Halliday (1–2)medium · 22 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 2:08Penalty
3rd 2:20Garrett Pilon (2–2)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 3:13Nathan Légaré (2–3)high · 17 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 8:44Mike Hardman (2–4)medium · 30 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 19:05Max Willman (2–5)empty net · low · 109 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen