AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, February 19

Hartford Wolf Pack at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hartford Wolf Pack
3:5
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HFDSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
61%39%
xG
3.52.5
High danger
45
Chances
1411
Shots
4022

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal22
14Scoring chances11
4High-danger chances5
3.52Expected goals2.55

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–83–41–11.2–0.8
2nd11–66–41–21.2–0.9
3rd13–85–32–21.2–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
40
Saves
37
Allowed
3
xGA
3.52
GSAx
+0.52
Louis Domingue
Shots faced
22
Saves
17
Allowed
5
xGA
2.55
GSAx
-2.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:40Penalty
  • 1st 1:29Nikita Alexandrov (0–1)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 1st 13:26Penalty
  • 1st 13:26Penalty
  • 1st 13:26Penalty
  • 1st 13:26Penalty
  • 1st 13:26Penalty
  • 1st 14:20Anton Blidh (1–1)high · 9 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 17:01Penalty
  • 1st 18:48Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (1–2)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 2nd 5:49Penalty
  • 2nd 12:56Matthew Peca (1–3)high · 18 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 2nd 13:42Penalty
  • 2nd 15:33Connor Mackey (2–3)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 5:26Penalty
  • 3rd 6:26Nikita Alexandrov (2–4)5v4 · low · 35 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 3rd 14:37Penalty
  • 3rd 17:30Alex Belzile (3–4)low · 23 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 18:36Matt Luff (3–5)empty net · medium · 24 ft · beat Louis Domingue