AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, February 19

Bakersfield Condors at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Bakersfield Condors
3:4
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

BAKHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
20%80%
xG
1.93.2
High danger
36
Chances
511
Shots
2338

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal38
5Scoring chances11
3High-danger chances6
1.90Expected goals3.19

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–72–12–10.9–0.5
2nd6–171–71–40.5–1.6
3rd7–142–30–10.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−3−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK30:00 of the 3rd20:005:53+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia
Shots faced
38
Saves
34
Allowed
4
xGA
3.18
GSAx
-0.82
Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
23
Saves
20
Allowed
3
xGA
1.90
GSAx
-1.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:24Raphael Lavoie (0–1)low · snap · 33 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 0:22Penalty
  • 2nd 6:07Jakub Brabenec (0–2)low · backhand · 16 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 6:24Penalty
  • 2nd 8:18Mitch McLain (0–3)5v4 · medium · backhand · 10 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 12:10Penalty
  • 2nd 12:10Penalty
  • 2nd 19:07Penalty
  • 2nd 19:07Penalty
  • 2nd 19:07Penalty
  • 3rd 1:37Penalty
  • 3rd 3:38Daniel D’Amato (1–3)medium · tip · 8 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 3rd 5:34Drake Caggiula (2–3)medium · wrist · 17 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 3rd 7:46Penalty
  • 3rd 12:41Penalty
  • 3rd 13:27Penalty
  • 3rd 13:27Penalty
  • 3rd 14:16James Hamblin (3–3)5v4 · low · wrist · 48 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 3rd 17:45Braeden Bowman (3–4)medium · tip · 15 ft · beat Collin Delia