Tucson Roadrunners at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

2:5

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

TUCCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.33.5
High danger: 36
Chances: 814
Shots: 2437

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal37

8Scoring chances14

3High-danger chances6

2.28Expected goals3.54

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	4–2	1–1	1.0–0.5
2nd	9–18	3–7	1–3	0.8–1.7
3rd	7–12	1–5	1–2	0.5–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	6:53	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 32
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.54
GSAx: -1.46

Philipp Grubauer

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.28
GSAx: +0.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:33Ty Nelson (0–1)low · 56 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 1:29Jani Nyman (0–2)low · 32 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 3:35Luke Henman (0–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 6:17Penalty
2nd 9:53Penalty
2nd 9:53Penalty
2nd 13:39Hunter Drew (1–3)medium · rebound · 26 ft · beat Philipp Grubauer
2nd 16:20Penalty
3rd 8:41Penalty
3rd 11:43Penalty
3rd 15:58Hunter Drew (2–3)low · 65 ft · beat Philipp Grubauer
3rd 18:26Jani Nyman (2–4)empty net · low · 120 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 19:03Lleyton Roed (2–5)empty net · low · 56 ft · beat Matthew Villalta