San Diego Gulls at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

San Diego Gulls

4:1

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

SDBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

11%89%

xG: 1.13.1
High danger: 13
Chances: 311
Shots: 2137

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal37

3Scoring chances11

1High-danger chances3

1.08Expected goals3.14

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–11	1–6	1–1	0.6–1.2
2nd	10–15	2–3	0–1	0.5–1.1
3rd	4–11	0–2	0–1	0.1–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 36
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.14
GSAx: +2.14

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 17
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.08
GSAx: -2.92

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:47Penalty
1st 16:18Penalty
2nd 1:45Penalty
2nd 1:45Penalty
2nd 10:41Penalty
2nd 11:59Yegor Sidorov (1–0)5v4 · medium · wrist · 29 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 12:38Drake Caggiula (1–1)low · slap · 61 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 13:18Roland McKeown (2–1)low · slap · 65 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 1:30Penalty
3rd 8:43Penalty
3rd 14:21Penalty
3rd 17:38Penalty
3rd 18:01Dillon Heatherington (3–1)empty net · low · wrist · 154 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 19:01Ryan Carpenter (4–1)empty net · low · wrist · 138 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue