Hershey Bears at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Hershey Bears

1:3

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

HERCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

23%77%

xG: 2.03.4
High danger: 36
Chances: 712
Shots: 1838

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal38

7Scoring chances12

3High-danger chances6

2.02Expected goals3.42

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–7	0–3	0–1	0.2–0.7
2nd	6–15	1–3	0–1	0.4–1.2
3rd	9–16	6–6	3–4	1.4–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	1	19:31 of the 3rd	0:29	0:29	+0.009 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 35
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.42
GSAx: +0.42

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 17
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.02
GSAx: +1.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:44Penalty
1st 8:05Penalty
1st 15:48Penalty
1st 16:03Penalty
2nd 7:31Penalty
2nd 17:31John Leonard (0–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 0:29Penalty
3rd 3:39Penalty
3rd 4:27Penalty
3rd 5:22Hendrix Lapierre (1–1)high · 14 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 15:53Penalty
3rd 19:31Michael Benning (1–2)low · 47 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 19:47Kyle Criscuolo (1–3)empty net · low · 92 ft · beat Hunter Shepard