Utica Comets at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Utica Comets

4:2

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

UTCBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 1.31.2
Chances: 31
Shots: 2625

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal25

3Scoring chances1

0High-danger chances0

1.34Expected goals1.17

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–9	0–0	0–0	0.4–0.3
2nd	7–8	1–1	0–0	0.4–0.5
3rd	10–8	2–0	0–0	0.5–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.34
GSAx: -2.66

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.16
GSAx: -0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:43Brian Halonen (1–0)low · 24 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 13:42Max Willman (2–0)low · 20 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 8:39Dennis Cholowski (2–1)low · rebound · 54 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 9:32Penalty
2nd 11:48Chris Terry (2–2)low · 41 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
3rd 1:44Xavier Parent (3–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 13:10Penalty
3rd 13:10Penalty
3rd 17:03Penalty
3rd 18:54Nathan Légaré (4–2)empty net · low · 72 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen