AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 22

Henderson Silver Knights at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Henderson Silver Knights
4:2
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

HSKMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
53%47%
xG
1.71.9
High danger
22
Chances
32
Shots
2327

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal27
3Scoring chances2
2High-danger chances2
1.69Expected goals1.88

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–132–12–10.9–1.0
2nd7–100–00–00.3–0.5
3rd5–41–10–10.4–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
27
Saves
25
Allowed
2
xGA
1.88
GSAx
-0.12
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
23
Saves
19
Allowed
4
xGA
1.69
GSAx
-2.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:47Penalty
  • 1st 2:46Chase De Leo (0–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 5:29Penalty
  • 1st 6:11Gage Quinney (1–1)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 9:49Penalty
  • 1st 15:02Penalty
  • 1st 15:02Penalty
  • 1st 17:16Penalty
  • 2nd 9:48Jakub Demek (2–1)low · 31 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 10:05Penalty
  • 2nd 13:09Penalty
  • 2nd 13:09Penalty
  • 2nd 13:09Penalty
  • 2nd 13:09Penalty
  • 2nd 15:12Ryan Ufko (2–2)low · 54 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 2nd 17:29Penalty
  • 2nd 17:29Penalty
  • 2nd 17:29Penalty
  • 2nd 17:29Penalty
  • 2nd 17:29Penalty
  • 2nd 17:29Penalty
  • 2nd 17:29Penalty
  • 3rd 8:29Matyas Sapovaliv (3–2)low · 52 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 11:30Penalty
  • 3rd 17:40Cal Burke (4–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 19:07Penalty