AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 22

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
3:5
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

WBSSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
42%58%
xG
2.32.6
High danger
33
Chances
710
Shots
3327

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal27
7Scoring chances10
3High-danger chances3
2.29Expected goals2.58

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–43–32–11.0–0.5
2nd9–131–20–00.5–1.0
3rd11–103–51–20.8–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

WBS−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
WBS214:33 of the 3rd5:275:27+0.025 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis
Shots faced
33
Saves
30
Allowed
3
xGA
2.29
GSAx
-0.71
Tristan Jarry
Shots faced
27
Saves
22
Allowed
5
xGA
2.58
GSAx
-2.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:18Penalty
  • 1st 12:39Penalty
  • 1st 12:39Penalty
  • 1st 13:35Penalty
  • 1st 16:21Ville Koivunen (1–0)low · 36 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 0:31Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (1–1)low · 49 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
  • 2nd 1:17Boris Katchouk (2–1)low · 28 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 6:36Penalty
  • 2nd 14:23Otto Stenberg (2–2)low · 39 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
  • 2nd 17:22Penalty
  • 2nd 19:33Corey Schueneman (2–3)low · 52 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
  • 2nd 19:53Penalty
  • 3rd 10:40Penalty
  • 3rd 10:40Penalty
  • 3rd 12:04Penalty
  • 3rd 14:33Matthew Peca (2–4)high · 20 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
  • 3rd 15:45Penalty
  • 3rd 16:59Valtteri Puustinen (3–4)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 19:40Penalty
  • 3rd 19:40Nikita Alexandrov (3–5)empty net · low · 31 ft · beat Tristan Jarry