San Jose Barracuda at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

San Jose Barracuda

3:1

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

SJONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

46%54%

xG: 2.42.7
High danger: 44
Chances: 1012
Shots: 2424

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal24

10Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances4

2.41Expected goals2.66

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	4–7	2–2	1.1–1.3
2nd	8–7	2–4	0–2	0.6–1.0
3rd	9–5	4–1	2–0	0.8–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	3	8:59 of the 3rd	11:01	11:01	+0.016 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.41
GSAx: -0.59

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.66
GSAx: +1.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:15Penalty
1st 8:53Penalty
2nd 4:45Thomas Bordeleau (1–0)low · 38 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 6:16Penalty
2nd 7:37Penalty
3rd 6:52Ethan Cardwell (2–0)high · 25 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 8:59Mitchell Russell (3–0)high · 17 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 11:12Penalty
3rd 11:12Penalty
3rd 11:12Penalty
3rd 11:12Penalty
3rd 13:32Penalty
3rd 19:14Penalty
3rd 19:14Penalty
3rd 19:14Penalty
3rd 19:40Martin Chromiak (3–1)5v4 · medium · 47 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere