AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, February 22

Abbotsford Canucks at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Abbotsford Canucks
2:3
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ABBTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
72%28%
xG
4.02.1
High danger
43
Chances
137
Shots
3924

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal24
13Scoring chances7
4High-danger chances3
3.97Expected goals2.12

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–85–31–11.0–0.6
2nd14–112–20–11.0–0.9
3rd14–56–23–11.9–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB30:00 of the 3rd20:0015:36+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
39
Saves
37
Allowed
2
xGA
3.97
GSAx
+1.97
Nikita Tolopilo
Shots faced
24
Saves
21
Allowed
3
xGA
2.12
GSAx
-0.88

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 10:39Penalty
  • 1st 15:02Egor Sokolov (0–1)high · 17 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 1:50Penalty
  • 2nd 8:17Cameron Hebig (0–2)low · 23 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 10:46Penalty
  • 2nd 10:46Penalty
  • 2nd 12:06Penalty
  • 2nd 12:06Penalty
  • 2nd 12:43Penalty
  • 2nd 12:43Penalty
  • 2nd 13:43Penalty
  • 2nd 18:50Hunter Drew (0–3)low · 37 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 19:47Penalty
  • 3rd 1:21Penalty
  • 3rd 5:08Penalty
  • 3rd 7:45Samuel Blais (1–3)low · 22 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 8:47Penalty
  • 3rd 8:47Penalty
  • 3rd 13:42Penalty
  • 3rd 19:30Aatu Räty (2–3)grade A · 14 ft · beat Matthew Villalta