AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, February 23

Rockford IceHogs at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Rockford IceHogs
2:4
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

RFDCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
74%26%
xG
3.51.8
High danger
84
Chances
158
Shots
3115

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal15
15Scoring chances8
8High-danger chances4
3.52Expected goals1.76

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–73–50–30.5–0.9
2nd12–48–17–02.1–0.4
3rd11–44–21–10.9–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD30:00 of the 3rd20:0011:33+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Tokarski
Shots faced
31
Saves
29
Allowed
2
xGA
3.52
GSAx
+1.52
Mitchell Weeks
Shots faced
15
Saves
11
Allowed
4
xGA
1.76
GSAx
-2.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:53Penalty
  • 1st 11:05Penalty
  • 1st 11:05Penalty
  • 1st 12:40Bradly Nadeau (0–1)5v4 · high · 34 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 1st 17:08Bradly Nadeau (0–2)high · 10 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 2nd 8:10Penalty
  • 2nd 12:19Scott Morrow (0–3)medium · 21 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 2nd 13:50Penalty
  • 3rd 1:27Penalty
  • 3rd 1:27Penalty
  • 3rd 1:27Penalty
  • 3rd 1:27Penalty
  • 3rd 2:52Nick Swaney (0–4)high · 26 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 3rd 3:19Gerry Mayhew (1–4)medium · 15 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 3:42Ryan Gagnier (2–4)medium · 32 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 7:46Penalty
  • 3rd 15:20Penalty