Abbotsford Canucks at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Abbotsford Canucks

3:4

Final / OT

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ABBTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

46%54%

xG: 2.52.4
High danger: 24
Chances: 88
Shots: 3422

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal22

8Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances4

2.52Expected goals2.38

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–9	2–4	1–2	0.7–1.0
2nd	10–7	3–3	1–2	0.8–1.0
3rd	14–4	3–1	0–0	1.0–0.2
OT	0–2	0–0	0–0	0.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:23	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.52
GSAx: -0.48

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: -1.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:15Penalty
1st 6:47Ben McCartney (0–1)5v4 · high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 11:32Penalty
1st 19:43Max Sasson (1–1)high · 11 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 3:47Austin Poganski (1–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 6:19Penalty
2nd 6:19Penalty
2nd 6:19Penalty
2nd 6:33Penalty
2nd 8:20Jonathan Lekkerimäki (2–2)5v4 · low · 59 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 12:29Penalty
2nd 14:32Cameron Hebig (2–3)grade A · rebound · 24 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 17:19Linus Karlsson (3–3)medium · 15 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
OT 1:00Penalty
OT 1:00Andrew Agozzino (3–4)low · 23 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo