San Jose Barracuda at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

San Jose Barracuda

3:5

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

SJCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 2.82.8
High danger: 34
Chances: 1312
Shots: 2931

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal31

13Scoring chances12

3High-danger chances4

2.77Expected goals2.84

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–10	3–3	0–2	0.5–0.8
2nd	9–16	6–8	1–2	1.1–1.8
3rd	15–5	4–1	2–0	1.2–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aaron Dell

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 26
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.84
GSAx: -2.16

Philipp Grubauer

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: -0.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:48Jani Nyman (0–1)high · 7 ft · beat Aaron Dell
1st 5:41Gustav Olofsson (0–2)low · 60 ft · beat Aaron Dell
1st 9:56Penalty
1st 13:24Penalty
1st 16:44Danil Gushchin (1–2)low · 41 ft · beat Philipp Grubauer
1st 18:20Penalty
2nd 5:39Penalty
2nd 7:42Jagger Firkus (1–3)medium · 8 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 12:33Penalty
2nd 15:33Ben Meyers (1–4)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 17:32Andrew Poturalski (2–4)medium · 19 ft · beat Philipp Grubauer
3rd 19:14Colin White (3–4)high · 10 ft · beat Philipp Grubauer
3rd 19:58Logan Morrison (3–5)empty net · low · 72 ft · beat Aaron Dell