AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, February 26

Providence Bruins at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Providence Bruins
5:1
Final
Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

PROBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
86%14%
xG
2.31.4
High danger
31
Chances
103
Shots
2831

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BRI above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal31
10Scoring chances3
3High-danger chances1
2.30Expected goals1.41

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–83–01–00.7–0.3
2nd12–125–21–01.1–0.5
3rd5–112–11–10.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BRI−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BRI30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
31
Saves
30
Allowed
1
xGA
1.40
GSAx
+0.40
Henrik Tikkanen
Shots faced
28
Saves
23
Allowed
5
xGA
2.30
GSAx
-2.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 16:40Penalty
  • 2nd 3:02Penalty
  • 2nd 3:24Patrick Brown (1–0)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 2nd 5:35Vinni Lettieri (2–0)low · 20 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 2nd 6:54Penalty
  • 2nd 9:04John Farinacci (3–0)low · 41 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 2nd 11:03Penalty
  • 2nd 11:15Patrick Brown (4–0)5v4 · medium · 28 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 2nd 13:46Penalty
  • 2nd 15:53Isaiah George (4–1)low · 47 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 16:44Penalty
  • 2nd 19:04Penalty
  • 3rd 9:17Tyler Pitlick (5–1)high · 20 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen